Washington at Seattle
Line: Seahawks by 3
The Redskins march into the playoffs as one of the league's hottest teams, having won four straight down the stretch to get to this point, doing so improbably with backup QB Todd Collins managing the offense. A big key has been the running of a healthy Clinton Portis, who alone makes the Redskins a threat in the postseason. If the Skins can establish the ground game early, they should continue the winning formula they've adopted over the last four games. The key will be whether Springs and Smoot can contain the perimeter, which I think they can, and the Redskins will get it done. Redskins 20, Seahawks 17
Jacksonville at Pittsburgh
Line: Jaguars by 2.5
The rematch between these two ballclubs should have the same intensity as the first meeting, and a similar outcome is likely. Pittsburgh just has too many injuries, plus the Jags have been red-hot down the stretch, winning six of seven after a 5-3 start before dropping a meaningless last game against the Texans. Their offense in that stretch has been unstoppable and if they can establish the ground game the same way they did in the last meeting, it doesn't matter what the conditions are, the Jags will have success. Jaguars 27, Steelers 24
New York Giants at Tampa Bay
Line: Buccaneers by 3
At some point, Eli has to step up and win a playoff game. It took his brother a long time to meet those expectations. This seems like a good opportunity for the Giants as well. They play in relatively comfortable weather down in Tampa, where the Bucs will look a bit rusty after wrapping up their division fairly early. While their passing offense has been sturdy and they got surprising contributions in the running game from Earnest Graham, the playoffs are a different story, and unless their playmakers show up again, the G-Men could emerge victorious. If they can get an early lead against the Bucs, they'll get the running game going and the Giants will have a fun time pounding the ball against the Bucs' small defensive front. Giants 24, Buccaneers 21
Tennessee at San Diego
Line: Chargers by 10
I get a feeling the Titans will have that "Happy to be here" look on their face. They struggled beating the Colts' backups last week and struggled to beat a 4-12 Jets team at home the week before. San Diego, meanwhile, is red hot, having won six straight down the stretch to seal up the #3 seed. After two heartbreaking home losses in the playoffs in each of their previous two appearances, the Lightning Bolts will get it done this time around. They're just flat out too talented for the Titans to keep up. If the Titans can't run the football, and their running game has been hot and cold this year, they're toast, because they certainly don't have much of a passing game. Chargers 31, Titans 10
Week 17 vs Spread 11-5
Season vs Spread 130-121-9
Week 17 Straight up 14-2
Season Straight up 163-77
Friday, January 4, 2008
Thursday, January 3, 2008
Introducing the Gonzaga Theory
In 1999, a small school in Spokane, Washington entered the NCAA Basketball Tournament with few expectations. Seeded 10th and filled with a bevy of shooters, the Gonzaga Bulldogs took the tournament by storm, upsetting Minnesota, Stanford and Florida and taking eventual-champion Connecticut into the last minute before finally bowing out in the Elite Eight. This same team would come back the next two years, seeded 10th and 12th respectively, and march their way into the Sweet 16 each time. Eventually, they'd start scheduling tougher preseason opponents and earned a spot in the Top 25, as they routinely won their conference to become a trendy March pick. Except a funny thing happened. A year after their third straight Sweet 16 appearance, Gonzaga had their most dominant year in school history, winning the conference and earning the 6th seed in the tournament, only to be upset in round 1 by Wyoming. Two years later, they earned an even higher seeding, #2, and lost in round 2 to Nevada. The following year, a #3 seeding and a second round loss to Texas Tech again ended the Bulldogs' season prematurely. They frustaurated countless tourney pool entrants, most of whom befuddled by Gonzaga's sudden lack of success in the tournament.
The answer was simple, however. Gonzaga, thanks to its large national exposure, had suddenly gone from underrated to overhyped. Experienced college coaches scouted them and found their weaknesses. The pressure mounted and suddenly, the same looseness Gonzaga played with as an underdog was not visible with the pressure on. They had gone from the hunter to the hunted.
In watching West Virginia completely dismantle Oklahoma last night, I saw them play pressure-free, a complete contrast to the way they played against Pittsburgh to end the regular season, when they were wounded, nervous, and felt the pressure as their offense slogged through the game. They would lose 13-9 and miss out on a shot at the National Title. While this is only a two-game sample, you must also remember this same West Virginia team went into the Sugar Bowl against Georgia just two years ago with the same low expectations they had against OU and shellacked the Bulldogs 38-28. There are certain teams that seem to play better when the pressure is off and no one is taking them seriously. I can cite several more examples as well that fully and appropriately fit the Gonzaga theory.
2004 Detroit Pistons Won the NBA Championship as the 3rd seed, defeating the Los Angeles Lakers 4 games to 1. They finished 2nd in the division, 7 games behind the Pacers. Yet in 2002, 2003, 2005, 2006 and 2007, when they were division champs, the Pistons lost four times in the Eastern Conference Finals and once in the NBA Finals.
2006 Pittsburgh Steelers Won the Super Bowl as the lowest seed in the AFC, winning three straight road games against the Bengals, Colts and Broncos before beating the Seahawks. Yet in 2002 and 2004, they finished with the best record in the AFC and lost both Championship games at home to New England.
2006 St. Louis Cardinals Finished the regular season with 83 wins, the 6th most in the NL, yet beat the 88-win Padres and the 97-win Mets before handling the Detroit Tigers 4 games to 1 in the World Series. In 2004 and 2005, they won over 100 games yet were swept in the World Series and lost in the NLCS.
2004 and 2005 Houston Astros Reached the NLCS and the World Series as a Wild Card, yet as division winners in 1997, 1998, 1999 and 2001, they lost in the first round four times.
1999 North Carolina Tar Heels Made the Final Four as the 8th seed, yet lost in the first round to Weber St. as the #3 seed the previous year and lost in the second round to Penn St. as the #2 seed the following year.
The result of these teams' success is driven from a number of factors. One is that they may have gotten hot at the right time and played beyond their usual expectations (Pistons, Tar Heels, Astros, Steelers, Knicks). Another is that they weren't well-scouted before but were exposed once people caught on to their style of play (West Virginia, Gonzaga). In some cases, a number of key veterans were in the twilight of their career and the manager/coach found the perfect mix of role players to compliment the veterans, who were driven to succeed before their careers ended (Cardinals). In any event, I introduce this new theory with the hopes of benefitting from it in the future.
The answer was simple, however. Gonzaga, thanks to its large national exposure, had suddenly gone from underrated to overhyped. Experienced college coaches scouted them and found their weaknesses. The pressure mounted and suddenly, the same looseness Gonzaga played with as an underdog was not visible with the pressure on. They had gone from the hunter to the hunted.
In watching West Virginia completely dismantle Oklahoma last night, I saw them play pressure-free, a complete contrast to the way they played against Pittsburgh to end the regular season, when they were wounded, nervous, and felt the pressure as their offense slogged through the game. They would lose 13-9 and miss out on a shot at the National Title. While this is only a two-game sample, you must also remember this same West Virginia team went into the Sugar Bowl against Georgia just two years ago with the same low expectations they had against OU and shellacked the Bulldogs 38-28. There are certain teams that seem to play better when the pressure is off and no one is taking them seriously. I can cite several more examples as well that fully and appropriately fit the Gonzaga theory.
2004 Detroit Pistons Won the NBA Championship as the 3rd seed, defeating the Los Angeles Lakers 4 games to 1. They finished 2nd in the division, 7 games behind the Pacers. Yet in 2002, 2003, 2005, 2006 and 2007, when they were division champs, the Pistons lost four times in the Eastern Conference Finals and once in the NBA Finals.
2006 Pittsburgh Steelers Won the Super Bowl as the lowest seed in the AFC, winning three straight road games against the Bengals, Colts and Broncos before beating the Seahawks. Yet in 2002 and 2004, they finished with the best record in the AFC and lost both Championship games at home to New England.
2006 St. Louis Cardinals Finished the regular season with 83 wins, the 6th most in the NL, yet beat the 88-win Padres and the 97-win Mets before handling the Detroit Tigers 4 games to 1 in the World Series. In 2004 and 2005, they won over 100 games yet were swept in the World Series and lost in the NLCS.
2004 and 2005 Houston Astros Reached the NLCS and the World Series as a Wild Card, yet as division winners in 1997, 1998, 1999 and 2001, they lost in the first round four times.
1999 North Carolina Tar Heels Made the Final Four as the 8th seed, yet lost in the first round to Weber St. as the #3 seed the previous year and lost in the second round to Penn St. as the #2 seed the following year.
The result of these teams' success is driven from a number of factors. One is that they may have gotten hot at the right time and played beyond their usual expectations (Pistons, Tar Heels, Astros, Steelers, Knicks). Another is that they weren't well-scouted before but were exposed once people caught on to their style of play (West Virginia, Gonzaga). In some cases, a number of key veterans were in the twilight of their career and the manager/coach found the perfect mix of role players to compliment the veterans, who were driven to succeed before their careers ended (Cardinals). In any event, I introduce this new theory with the hopes of benefitting from it in the future.
Tuesday, January 1, 2008
Week 9 NBA Rankings
1. Boston Celtics (26-3) (1) Loss to the Pistons? They'll just brush that off and win another six in a row.
2. Detroit Pistons (24-7) (2) Just wait until Rodney Stuckey develops. An already-deep Detroit bench is about to get a whole lot deeper.
3. San Antonio Spurs (21-8) (3) DerMarr Johnson was added to hopefully fill the void in Ginobili's continued absence.2. Detroit Pistons (24-7) (2) Just wait until Rodney Stuckey develops. An already-deep Detroit bench is about to get a whole lot deeper.
4. Phoenix Suns (22-9) (6) If Amare can dominate again, Phoenix emerges as a true NBA Finals threat again.
5. Dallas Mavericks (20-11) (4) Even Erick Dampier has awoken from his three year slumber to post a double-double against Atlanta.
6. Orlando Magic (22-11) (8) This was a good weak for the Magic to heal up, as they feasted on some patsies.5. Dallas Mavericks (20-11) (4) Even Erick Dampier has awoken from his three year slumber to post a double-double against Atlanta.
7. Los Angeles Lakers (19-11) (5) Take note: Lamar Odom played physical for the first time in his career when he roughed up Ray Allen during the blowout loss to Boston.
8. New Orleans Hornets (20-11) (7) We're starting to see a truly dominant Chris Paul, as evidenced by a 40-point game against Memphis and a 16-assist effort against the Raptors.
9. Golden State Warriors (19-13) (11) Warriors' offense is in full-blast during their 19-7 explosion. 8. New Orleans Hornets (20-11) (7) We're starting to see a truly dominant Chris Paul, as evidenced by a 40-point game against Memphis and a 16-assist effort against the Raptors.
10. Portland Trail Blazers (18-13) (9) Loss on the road to the Jazz finally ends unlikely 13-game winning streak that has vaulted Portland towards the top of the division.
11. Denver Nuggets (18-12) (10) As much work as Camby does on the defensive end, the Nuggets have got to find a way to get him more involved offensively.
11. Denver Nuggets (18-12) (10) As much work as Camby does on the defensive end, the Nuggets have got to find a way to get him more involved offensively.
12. Utah Jazz (17-16) (14) Now at least the Jazz have the shooter they want in Korver so they can try and repeat last year's playoff run.
13. Atlanta Hawks (15-13) (12) As their five-game winning streak ends in Dallas, the Hawks must learn to deal with being the hunted instead of the hunter.14. Toronto Raptors (17-15) (15) Winning in San Antonio will only do wonders for the Raptors' confidence.
15. Washington Wizards (15-14) (16) Daniels' return to the lineup couldn't come at a better time, although the Wizards' persevered with Mason Jr.16. Houston Rockets (15-16) (18) They were on a 2 game winning streak and everything was starting to look rosy until a fourth-quarter collapse and loss to the Warriors.
17. Indiana Pacers (15-17) (13) Tinsley's absence can't be a good sign in the midst of a four-game losing streak, especially with the Pacers' lack of depth at that position.
17. Indiana Pacers (15-17) (13) Tinsley's absence can't be a good sign in the midst of a four-game losing streak, especially with the Pacers' lack of depth at that position.
18. New Jersey Nets (14-16) (20) The continued impressive play of Shawn Williams as well as the revival of Vince Carter have been keys in getting the Nets back in playoff contention.
19. Cleveland Cavaliers (14-17) (17) Betcha didn't know that Zydrunas Illgauskas has the longest tenure in the league with one team. 20. Philadelphia 76ers (14-17) (23) Firing King was best for this team, as they've played a lot better since the new GM took over and got pretty decent return on Korver.
21. Chicago Bulls (11-18) (24) Finally, some common sense being used, as Jim Boylen, Scott Skiles's replacement, moves Gordon back to the bench, where his scoring is more valuable.22. Charlotte Bobcats (11-18) (22) Jordan practiced with the team, keeping everyone on their toes, for losing to a 40+ year old man, even one as good as Jordan, means they may get traded.
23. Sacramento Kings (11-18) (19) I love the idea of Bibby starting at SG when he comes back. This is a classic example of a small-ball team.
23. Sacramento Kings (11-18) (19) I love the idea of Bibby starting at SG when he comes back. This is a classic example of a small-ball team.
24. Milwaukee Bucks (11-19) (24) It's beginning to get a little ugly in Milwaukee, especially after losing by 45 to the Pistons.
25. Los Angeles Clippers (10-19) (25) The good news is ET is finally back, the bad news is the ship is sinking fast.
25. Los Angeles Clippers (10-19) (25) The good news is ET is finally back, the bad news is the ship is sinking fast.
26. Seattle Supersonics (9-22) (27) Durant deals with nicks and bruises for the first time as an injured finger keeps him out vs Philly.
27. New York Knicks (8-21) (29) Curry is clearly unhappy with his sixth man role, but how else do you motivate such a lazy player?
27. New York Knicks (8-21) (29) Curry is clearly unhappy with his sixth man role, but how else do you motivate such a lazy player?
28. Memphis Grizzlies (8-22) (28) They're still a year away after being thoroughlly overmatched in their last three division losses.
29. Miami Heat (8-23) (26) With Wade and Shaq hobbling and Mourning finished, there's little hope for a Heat rally this season.
29. Miami Heat (8-23) (26) With Wade and Shaq hobbling and Mourning finished, there's little hope for a Heat rally this season.
30. Minnesota Timberwolves (4-26) (30) This is how bad it is for the TWolves: Their backup center with Ratliff out was an actual backup in college.
Monday, December 31, 2007
Week 3 College Bowl Picks
International Bowl
Rutgers vs Ball St.
Line: Rutgers by 10
Rutgers has been up and down this year, but I think their big offensive line will be able to pound the ball on offense and get enough pressure on Nate Davis to cruise to an easy victory. Rutgers 42, Ball St. 14
Watchability: *
GMAC Bowl
Bowling Green vs Tulsa
Line: Tulsa by 4
An exciting shootout is inevitable as Bowling Green and Tulsa run the same exciting spread offense. Tulsa's is just more exciting and diverse. Expect a shootout and an exciting precursor to the BCS Championship game. Tulsa 38, Bowling Green 31
Watchability: **
Outback Bowl
#16 Wisconsin vs #18 Tennessee
Line: Tennessee by 2
Wisconsin is not your stereotypical Big 10 team. If the last two years have taught us anything, they have enough team speed to compete with most SEC schools, as victories over Arkansas and Auburn in the last two years have proven. While Tennessee has the speed, Wisconsin should control the tempo with their big offensive line and smother Erik Ainge with their pressure. Wisconsin 21, Tennessee 19
Watchability: ****
Cotton Bowl
Arkansas vs #6 Missouri
Line: Missouri by 3
The way these two offenses run, expect a huge abundance of points. On one side, Missouri will have their hands full with the combination of Darrin McFadden and Felix Jones. On the other, Arkansas will have trouble stopping the Missouri spread attack captained so brilliantly by Chase Daniel. In the end though, it's hard to trust the Razorbacks' hot-and-cold QB play. Missouri 31, Arkansas 24
Watchability: ****
Capital One Bowl
Michigan vs #12 Florida
Line: Florida by 10.5
This could possibly be the biggest mismatch out of all the bowl games. Michigan's disappointing year has been highlighted by inconsistent QB play and spotty defense. Florida's spread attack will run circles around the Wolverine defense and Tim Tebow will justify the Heisman hype with another 200-100 game. Florida 38, Michigan 14
Watchability: ****
Gator Bowl
Texas Tech vs #20 Virginia
Line: Texas Tech by 6
Chris Long is the type of pass-rusher who can disrupt a team's entire passing offense and that's what I have a feeling he'll do against the Red Raiders. By putting pressure on Graham Harrell, he'll throw off his rhythm and keep Tech from moving the ball consistently. Offensively, the Cavs will play an efficient, mistake-free game and control the clock against the undersized Red Raider defense. Virginia 23, Texas Tech 17
Watchability: ***
BCS BOWLS
Rose Bowl
#13 Illinois vs #7 USC
Line: USC by 14
We kick off the BCS feast with an intriguing Pac 1o-Big 10 matchup. The Trojans have healed up and overcome their midseason funk, but Illinois has shown drastic improvement in year 3 under Ron Zook. I think they have the athletes to go up and down the field with USC, but ultimately, the Trojans' depth will be too much for Illinois. USC 24, Illinois 21
Watchability: ****
Sugar Bowl
#10 Hawaii vs #5 Georgia
Line: Georgia by 7.5
One of the biggest things I noticed when watching Hawaii is how good their athletes are. These guys are no joke, their receivers could play for just about any school in the country and they have some linemen that play with loads of intensity. Georgia is very good and as hot a team as there is in the country, but what they'll find is that you can't underestimate Colt Brennan's heart, and he'll make enough plays to keep it close. Georgia 34, Hawaii 28
Watchability: ****
Fiesta Bowl
#9 West Virginia vs #4 Oklahoma
Line: Oklahoma by 7
West Virginia comes into this game reeling after blowing a shot at the National Title game with an embarrassing home loss to Pitt and watching their coach jump ship before their BCS game. OU is playing at as high a level as anyone in the country. They thumped Missouri in the title game and should rough up the already-banged-up duo of Pat White and Steve Slaton.
Oklahoma 38, West Virginia 21
Watchability: ****
Orange Bowl
#8 Kansas vs #3 Virginia Tech
Line: Virginia Tech by 3.5
What Mark Mangino has done with this Kansas team is nothing short of miraculous. With their spread attack, I think they can give the Hokies a lot of problems on defense. LSU exposed their weaknesses early in the year and VT hasn't faced an offense that good in ACC play. They're in for a rude awakening. Kansas 34, Virginia Tech 31
Watchability: ****
BCS Championship Game
#1 Ohio St. vs #2 LSU
Line: LSU by 4
This controversial title game is the end result of one of the wackiest years ever in college football. If any season cries for a playoff to be instituted in college football, this is it. With our current system, though, these are the de-facto #1 and #2 teams in the country. Ohio St. brings a tough defense to the table, but LSU has so many weapons at RB, not unlike the Illini team that beat OSU at home earlier this year. If OSU has the same kind of trouble against LSU's attack, they'll have to score a lot of points to keep up with the Tigers. LSU needs to jump on the Buckeyes early and force them to play from behind, where their offense is less effective because they can't rely on running the ball. LSU 34, Ohio St. 27
Watchability: *****
Week 2 vs Spread 8-5
Week 2 Striaght up 9-4
Season vs Spread 12-9
Season Straight up 16-5
Rutgers vs Ball St.
Line: Rutgers by 10
Rutgers has been up and down this year, but I think their big offensive line will be able to pound the ball on offense and get enough pressure on Nate Davis to cruise to an easy victory. Rutgers 42, Ball St. 14
Watchability: *
GMAC Bowl
Bowling Green vs Tulsa
Line: Tulsa by 4
An exciting shootout is inevitable as Bowling Green and Tulsa run the same exciting spread offense. Tulsa's is just more exciting and diverse. Expect a shootout and an exciting precursor to the BCS Championship game. Tulsa 38, Bowling Green 31
Watchability: **
Outback Bowl
#16 Wisconsin vs #18 Tennessee
Line: Tennessee by 2
Wisconsin is not your stereotypical Big 10 team. If the last two years have taught us anything, they have enough team speed to compete with most SEC schools, as victories over Arkansas and Auburn in the last two years have proven. While Tennessee has the speed, Wisconsin should control the tempo with their big offensive line and smother Erik Ainge with their pressure. Wisconsin 21, Tennessee 19
Watchability: ****
Cotton Bowl
Arkansas vs #6 Missouri
Line: Missouri by 3
The way these two offenses run, expect a huge abundance of points. On one side, Missouri will have their hands full with the combination of Darrin McFadden and Felix Jones. On the other, Arkansas will have trouble stopping the Missouri spread attack captained so brilliantly by Chase Daniel. In the end though, it's hard to trust the Razorbacks' hot-and-cold QB play. Missouri 31, Arkansas 24
Watchability: ****
Capital One Bowl
Michigan vs #12 Florida
Line: Florida by 10.5
This could possibly be the biggest mismatch out of all the bowl games. Michigan's disappointing year has been highlighted by inconsistent QB play and spotty defense. Florida's spread attack will run circles around the Wolverine defense and Tim Tebow will justify the Heisman hype with another 200-100 game. Florida 38, Michigan 14
Watchability: ****
Gator Bowl
Texas Tech vs #20 Virginia
Line: Texas Tech by 6
Chris Long is the type of pass-rusher who can disrupt a team's entire passing offense and that's what I have a feeling he'll do against the Red Raiders. By putting pressure on Graham Harrell, he'll throw off his rhythm and keep Tech from moving the ball consistently. Offensively, the Cavs will play an efficient, mistake-free game and control the clock against the undersized Red Raider defense. Virginia 23, Texas Tech 17
Watchability: ***
BCS BOWLS
Rose Bowl
#13 Illinois vs #7 USC
Line: USC by 14
We kick off the BCS feast with an intriguing Pac 1o-Big 10 matchup. The Trojans have healed up and overcome their midseason funk, but Illinois has shown drastic improvement in year 3 under Ron Zook. I think they have the athletes to go up and down the field with USC, but ultimately, the Trojans' depth will be too much for Illinois. USC 24, Illinois 21
Watchability: ****
Sugar Bowl
#10 Hawaii vs #5 Georgia
Line: Georgia by 7.5
One of the biggest things I noticed when watching Hawaii is how good their athletes are. These guys are no joke, their receivers could play for just about any school in the country and they have some linemen that play with loads of intensity. Georgia is very good and as hot a team as there is in the country, but what they'll find is that you can't underestimate Colt Brennan's heart, and he'll make enough plays to keep it close. Georgia 34, Hawaii 28
Watchability: ****
Fiesta Bowl
#9 West Virginia vs #4 Oklahoma
Line: Oklahoma by 7
West Virginia comes into this game reeling after blowing a shot at the National Title game with an embarrassing home loss to Pitt and watching their coach jump ship before their BCS game. OU is playing at as high a level as anyone in the country. They thumped Missouri in the title game and should rough up the already-banged-up duo of Pat White and Steve Slaton.
Oklahoma 38, West Virginia 21
Watchability: ****
Orange Bowl
#8 Kansas vs #3 Virginia Tech
Line: Virginia Tech by 3.5
What Mark Mangino has done with this Kansas team is nothing short of miraculous. With their spread attack, I think they can give the Hokies a lot of problems on defense. LSU exposed their weaknesses early in the year and VT hasn't faced an offense that good in ACC play. They're in for a rude awakening. Kansas 34, Virginia Tech 31
Watchability: ****
BCS Championship Game
#1 Ohio St. vs #2 LSU
Line: LSU by 4
This controversial title game is the end result of one of the wackiest years ever in college football. If any season cries for a playoff to be instituted in college football, this is it. With our current system, though, these are the de-facto #1 and #2 teams in the country. Ohio St. brings a tough defense to the table, but LSU has so many weapons at RB, not unlike the Illini team that beat OSU at home earlier this year. If OSU has the same kind of trouble against LSU's attack, they'll have to score a lot of points to keep up with the Tigers. LSU needs to jump on the Buckeyes early and force them to play from behind, where their offense is less effective because they can't rely on running the ball. LSU 34, Ohio St. 27
Watchability: *****
Week 2 vs Spread 8-5
Week 2 Striaght up 9-4
Season vs Spread 12-9
Season Straight up 16-5
Saturday, December 29, 2007
Week 17 NFL Predictions
New England at New York Giants
Line: Patriots by 13.5
Even though conventional wisdom suggests the Giants rest their starters, I can't help but think they'll be using this as a tuneup for playoff competition. The key is not to be so emotionally expended that they'll flame in round 1. The Pats' trek to an undefeated season has gotten a little rocky and the GMen will give them everything they have. Patriots 27, Giants 20
Buffalo at Philadelphia
Line: Eagles by 7.5
The Birds have nothing to gain by winning, just optimism going into next year. A strong finish means you'll probably see another year of McNabb. Philly just needs to get playmakers at receiver and they're a playoff team next year. Eagles 27, Bills 14
Carolina at Tampa Bay
Line: Panthers by 2.5
Tampa's got a nice little team, I just don't see them getting any further than the second round this year. Panthers 24, Buccaneers 20
Cincinnati at Miami
Line: Bengals by 2.5
They were so dangerously close to making history, but even if the Pats break their mark, at least the Fins didn't get skunked this year. That's cause for a little optimism, right? Bengals 24, Dolphins 10
Dallas at Washington
Line: Redskins by 9
I have to give major props to the Redskins. The fact they made the playoffs after Taylor's tragic death and Gibbs's ill-timed brainlock is a tribute to their character. Redskins 23, Cowboys 3
Detroit at Green Bay
Line: Packers by 5
The one concern the Packers should have going into the postseason are their last two losses against Dallas and Chicago. Favre displayed the wildness that has led to some recent Packer meltdowns in postseason play. Packers 27, Lions 17
Jacksonville at Houston
Line: Texans by 6.5
OK, so they didn't make the playoffs, but hey, the first .500 season in Texans' history is as good as a lock as the Jags tune up for their first round rematch with Pittsburgh. Texans 24, Jaguars 14
Chicago at New Orleans
Line: Saints by 1.5
Maybe this week the Bears try the Devin Hester experiment. We've seen them struggle enough with the forward pass, why not line him up under center? Who else did you have in mind? Urlacher? Saints 21, Bears 10
Pittsburgh at Baltimore
Line: Steelers by 3
Chuck Batch returns! Too bad he won't have most of the starters with him. Somehow I think Pitt's coasting through this one. They're screwed in the playoffs though without Parker. Ravens 10, Steelers 3
Seattle at Atlanta
Line: Falcons by 2.5
For Seattle to make their mark in the postseason, Alexander has to dig down deep and find his 2005 mojo again. Falcons 20, Seahawks 14
Cleveland at San Francisco
Line: Browns by 11.5
There's no nice way to put it, Cleveland blew their one chance to be more than a chronic failure. Next year, the schedule gets tougher and playoffs are no guarantee in the deep AFC. Browns 31, 49ers 10
Minnesota at Denver
Line: Vikings by 3
Another team that made a whole bunch of noise for nothing. At the end of the day, the same thing that everyone was worried about, erratic QB play, turned out to be the Vikes' achillies heel. Vikings 38, Broncos 21
San Diego at Oakland
Line: Chargers by 8
Is there any doubt that Sapp quit on the season when he got tossed last week? Oh, and thank God for parity. Oakland made a miraculous turnaround from 2-14 to...4-12. Chargers 28, Raiders 24
St. Louis at Arizona
Line: Cardinals by 6
Nothing, not even them being the Cardinals, can stand in the way of a .500 season. Not on Mr. Brenda Warner's watch! Cardinals 20, Rams 17
Kansas City at New York Jets
Line: Jets by 6
I know Herm took a lot of crap in NY, but lets be honest, the Jets would be better than 3-12 if he were coaching there. Mangini (and Weis for that matter) owe every dollar they've made to Belicheck. Jets 13, Chiefs 10
Tennessee at Indianapolis
Line: Titans by 6.5
Hey, gotta give the Titans credit. They hung in there when everyone thought they'd collapse and snatched away Cleveland's playoff spot in the last couple weeks. No way they lose when Jim Sorgi's playing a half and Marvin Harrison's only playing a series. Titans 24, Colts 10
Week 16 vs spread 8-8
Season vs spread 119-116-9
Week 16 straight up 10-6
Season straight up 149-75
Line: Patriots by 13.5
Even though conventional wisdom suggests the Giants rest their starters, I can't help but think they'll be using this as a tuneup for playoff competition. The key is not to be so emotionally expended that they'll flame in round 1. The Pats' trek to an undefeated season has gotten a little rocky and the GMen will give them everything they have. Patriots 27, Giants 20
Buffalo at Philadelphia
Line: Eagles by 7.5
The Birds have nothing to gain by winning, just optimism going into next year. A strong finish means you'll probably see another year of McNabb. Philly just needs to get playmakers at receiver and they're a playoff team next year. Eagles 27, Bills 14
Carolina at Tampa Bay
Line: Panthers by 2.5
Tampa's got a nice little team, I just don't see them getting any further than the second round this year. Panthers 24, Buccaneers 20
Cincinnati at Miami
Line: Bengals by 2.5
They were so dangerously close to making history, but even if the Pats break their mark, at least the Fins didn't get skunked this year. That's cause for a little optimism, right? Bengals 24, Dolphins 10
Dallas at Washington
Line: Redskins by 9
I have to give major props to the Redskins. The fact they made the playoffs after Taylor's tragic death and Gibbs's ill-timed brainlock is a tribute to their character. Redskins 23, Cowboys 3
Detroit at Green Bay
Line: Packers by 5
The one concern the Packers should have going into the postseason are their last two losses against Dallas and Chicago. Favre displayed the wildness that has led to some recent Packer meltdowns in postseason play. Packers 27, Lions 17
Jacksonville at Houston
Line: Texans by 6.5
OK, so they didn't make the playoffs, but hey, the first .500 season in Texans' history is as good as a lock as the Jags tune up for their first round rematch with Pittsburgh. Texans 24, Jaguars 14
Chicago at New Orleans
Line: Saints by 1.5
Maybe this week the Bears try the Devin Hester experiment. We've seen them struggle enough with the forward pass, why not line him up under center? Who else did you have in mind? Urlacher? Saints 21, Bears 10
Pittsburgh at Baltimore
Line: Steelers by 3
Chuck Batch returns! Too bad he won't have most of the starters with him. Somehow I think Pitt's coasting through this one. They're screwed in the playoffs though without Parker. Ravens 10, Steelers 3
Seattle at Atlanta
Line: Falcons by 2.5
For Seattle to make their mark in the postseason, Alexander has to dig down deep and find his 2005 mojo again. Falcons 20, Seahawks 14
Cleveland at San Francisco
Line: Browns by 11.5
There's no nice way to put it, Cleveland blew their one chance to be more than a chronic failure. Next year, the schedule gets tougher and playoffs are no guarantee in the deep AFC. Browns 31, 49ers 10
Minnesota at Denver
Line: Vikings by 3
Another team that made a whole bunch of noise for nothing. At the end of the day, the same thing that everyone was worried about, erratic QB play, turned out to be the Vikes' achillies heel. Vikings 38, Broncos 21
San Diego at Oakland
Line: Chargers by 8
Is there any doubt that Sapp quit on the season when he got tossed last week? Oh, and thank God for parity. Oakland made a miraculous turnaround from 2-14 to...4-12. Chargers 28, Raiders 24
St. Louis at Arizona
Line: Cardinals by 6
Nothing, not even them being the Cardinals, can stand in the way of a .500 season. Not on Mr. Brenda Warner's watch! Cardinals 20, Rams 17
Kansas City at New York Jets
Line: Jets by 6
I know Herm took a lot of crap in NY, but lets be honest, the Jets would be better than 3-12 if he were coaching there. Mangini (and Weis for that matter) owe every dollar they've made to Belicheck. Jets 13, Chiefs 10
Tennessee at Indianapolis
Line: Titans by 6.5
Hey, gotta give the Titans credit. They hung in there when everyone thought they'd collapse and snatched away Cleveland's playoff spot in the last couple weeks. No way they lose when Jim Sorgi's playing a half and Marvin Harrison's only playing a series. Titans 24, Colts 10
Week 16 vs spread 8-8
Season vs spread 119-116-9
Week 16 straight up 10-6
Season straight up 149-75
Friday, December 28, 2007
College Bowl Picks Week 2
Champs Sports Bowl
#14 Boston College vs Michigan St.Line: Boston College by 4
MSU has the kind of dynamic offense BC is not used to facing. They pass as well as they run and they're one of the top rushing teams in the nation. Meanwhile, BC's offense has been figured out to a large degree. If you jam their slow-footed receivers and put pressure on Matt Ryan, their attack suddenly becomes very average. MSU is an under-the-radar team that could give BC lots of problems. Boston College 20, Michigan St. 17Watchability: ***
Texas Bowl
Houston vs TCULine: TCU by 4.5
Sometimes, the Bowl committee misses on matchups, but this is definitely not one of those cases. We get an old school SWC matchup in the Lone Star state. TCU wins too as the Cougars still recover from knife wounds in their backs thanks to Art Briles jumping ship to Baylor before the season ended. TCU 17, Houston 10Watchability: **
Emerald Bowl
Maryland vs Oregon St.Line: Oregon St. by 5
The long travel will likely wear out Maryland and OSU is playing at a stadium close to their home turf, so they'll have a distinct home field advantage. OSU also plays the run surprisingly well, proving they're not your typical soft Pac 10 defense. I want to go with Maryland, but they're just too inconsistent. Oregon St. 24, Maryland 20Watchability: ***
Alamo Bowl
Penn St. vs Texas A&MLine: Penn St. by 5.5
From a defensive standpoint, PSU is the kind of team that can make A&M completely one-dimensional. If they can take away the running game early and if Anthony Morelli can just manage the game, PSU will come out of San Antonio with a solid bowl victory to end their year. Penn St 20, Texas A&M 10Watchability: ***
#25 Connecticut vs Wake Forest
Line: Connecticut by 2.5
This matchup features two of the best young coaches in America, as Randy Edsall has resurrected the Huskies to a 9-3 record and split of the Big East title following a 4-8 season. Meanwhile, Jim Grobe has proven last year's ACC Title was no fluke by leading the Deacon Demons to an 8-4 year and a second straight bowl appearance. Having played in a BCS game last year, I think WFU will play with the kind of intensity the Huskies aren't accustomed to and take advantage of the home field. Wake Forest 23, UConn 17
Watchability: ***
Central Florida vs Mississippi St.
Line: Central Florida by 3
The big reason to watch this game is Kevin Smith, another C-USA RB along with Chris Johnson who has the talent to be a 1st round NFL Draft pick. He's on pace to shatter the college rushing record now that he's coming back for his senior season. Mississippi St. has faced lots of good RB's in the SEC, but not one as good as this guy. Central Florida 31, Mississippi St. 27Watchability: ***
Colorado vs Alabama
Line: Alabama by 3
At least there's always the NFL on Sunday. Good thing, I doubt I'll be stuck watching this clunker between .500 teams. It's interesting too, it seems like the Independence Bowl is notorious for games like this. Maybe they should step up their advertising and get better corporate sponsors. Alabama 20, Colorado 16Watchability: *
Air Force vs California
Line: California by 3.5
The Golden Bears were at one point the #2 team in the country. Hard to believe that now, but after finishing the season 1-6 and suffering through a series of injuries, here they are. If they can't beat the bottom feeders in the Pac 10, they don't stand a chance against Air Force. Air Force 24, California 14Watchability: **
Oregon vs #21 South Florida
Line: South Florida by 6.5We'll call this the "I once was #2, remember? Bowl." South Florida came bursting out of the gate like gangbusters, winning their first six games. They included an impressive overtime win in Auburn and a home win over West Virginia. After getting upset by Rutgers, however, USF would drop its next two and fall out of the top 25. Oregon, meanwhile, continued to surge after USF fell, climing as high as #2 before Dennis Dixon tore his ACL and OU lost to Arizona, ending their hopes of a national title and sending them into a three-game freefall. It's a shame too, I really thought Oregon was going to represent the Pac 10, but with all the QB problems they're having, they'll likely end the year with 4 straight losses. South Florida 34, Oregon 20
Watchability: ***
Humanitarian Bowl
Georgia Tech vs Fresno St.Line: Georgia Tech by 6
Don't adjust your TV screen, the Humanitarian Bowl is back and the blue turf blamed for twelve seizures in this country will once again be occupied. By the way, isn't it interesting that Georgia Tech hired Paul Johnson now when it would have made perfect sense to hire him last year to coach the option game and save them from Reggie Ball's butchery of the forward pass? Georgia Tech 38, Fresno St. 17
Watchability: **
Don't adjust your TV screen, the Humanitarian Bowl is back and the blue turf blamed for twelve seizures in this country will once again be occupied. By the way, isn't it interesting that Georgia Tech hired Paul Johnson now when it would have made perfect sense to hire him last year to coach the option game and save them from Reggie Ball's butchery of the forward pass? Georgia Tech 38, Fresno St. 17
Watchability: **
Florida St. vs Kentucky
Line: Kentucky by 10
Watching FSU's descent has been truly sad. What happened at FSU with the 20 suspensions would have gotten any coach fired instantly, but the institution protects Bobby Bowden, who's completely lost control of the program. It's too late to turn things around, this short-handed Noles team won't stand a chance against the exciting young Wildcats and their cannon-armed QB, Andre Woodson. Kentucky 35, Florida St. 14
Watchability: ***
Watching FSU's descent has been truly sad. What happened at FSU with the 20 suspensions would have gotten any coach fired instantly, but the institution protects Bobby Bowden, who's completely lost control of the program. It's too late to turn things around, this short-handed Noles team won't stand a chance against the exciting young Wildcats and their cannon-armed QB, Andre Woodson. Kentucky 35, Florida St. 14
Watchability: ***
Indiana vs Oklahoma St.
Line: Oklahoma St. by 4
I may watch this game only for the 200 clips they show of Mike Gundy's outburst, which has to be the most colorful media tantrum a coach has ever thrown, better than even the hissy fits Jim Mora and Denny Green famously threw. This one had heart, as you could clearly see this guy was ready to blow a gasket after the reporter printed an unfavorable story about starting and then-struggling QB Bobby Reid. The great irony, of course, is that the same QB he was defending is now on the bench and the offense runs better with Zac Robinson starting. Oklahoma St. 30, Indiana 24
Watchability: **
I may watch this game only for the 200 clips they show of Mike Gundy's outburst, which has to be the most colorful media tantrum a coach has ever thrown, better than even the hissy fits Jim Mora and Denny Green famously threw. This one had heart, as you could clearly see this guy was ready to blow a gasket after the reporter printed an unfavorable story about starting and then-struggling QB Bobby Reid. The great irony, of course, is that the same QB he was defending is now on the bench and the offense runs better with Zac Robinson starting. Oklahoma St. 30, Indiana 24
Watchability: **
#23 Auburn vs #15 Clemson
Line: Clemson by 2.5
Outside of Texas-ASU, this could be the highest-quality Bowl game of all the pre-New Years matchups. I think Auburn's defensive line can hold Clemson's running attack in check and control the clock as well, forcing Cullen Harper to beat them. They'll win in what should be a defensive slugfest. Auburn 17, Clemson 13
Watchability: ****
Week 1 vs spread 4-4
Week 1 straight up 7-1
Outside of Texas-ASU, this could be the highest-quality Bowl game of all the pre-New Years matchups. I think Auburn's defensive line can hold Clemson's running attack in check and control the clock as well, forcing Cullen Harper to beat them. They'll win in what should be a defensive slugfest. Auburn 17, Clemson 13
Watchability: ****
Week 1 vs spread 4-4
Week 1 straight up 7-1
Wednesday, December 26, 2007
Week 8 NBA Rankings
- Boston Celtics (22-3) (1) It's Christmas time and everyone deserves a gift. I'll start out by giving Kendrick Perkins a custom-made flat frame bed, not the foldout kind that's liable to injure your feet.
- Detroit Pistons (20-7) (3) For Rasheed Wallace, a stress ball shaped like Tom Donaghy's head. Now you can squeeze it any time a call doesn't go your way, thus saving you money so you can get that gray spot taken care of. Just make sure David Stern doesn't catch on, he might fine you.
- San Antonio Spurs (19-7) (2) For Bruce Bowen, new shoes with an improved arch support that allows you to bounce right back off the floor into a defensive stance after flopping.
- Dallas Mavericks (19-9) (5) For Dirk Nowitzki, a non-refundable plane ticket back to Germany in mid-May, about the time his team gets eliminated from the playoffs.
- Los Angeles Lakers (18-10) (7) For Phil Jackson, a flapping dickey to go with that bright red bowtie he was sporting on Christmas.
- Phoenix Suns (19-9) (4) For Steve Nash, a Sampsonite Briefcase for him to take with him on road trips in case he wants to go into full Lloyd Christmas mode.
- New Orleans Hornets (17-10) (8) For Chris Paul, some tweezers to clean and maintain that unibrow of his.
- Orlando Magic (18-11) (6) For Rashard Lewis, an entire Bowlflex set so he can bulk up to play in the paint more.
- Portland Trail Blazers (16-12) (13) For Greg Oden, a knee brace to help him rehab for next year, when Portland emerges as a true title contender.
- Denver Nuggets (16-11) (10) For Allen Iverson, a Jason Kidd jersey he can sport in press conferences to lure the disgruntled PG out of New Jersey.
- Golden State Warriors (16-12) (11) For Stephen Jackson, an extra compartment to hide the gun in case he decides to go P Diddy in the club again.
- Atlanta Hawks (14-12) (17) For any Hawks' player under 21 (that'd be over half the roster, right?) another XBox 360 for those long, clubless nights on road trips.
- Indiana Pacers (15-13) (16) For Troy Murphy, one-on-0ne sessions with Tony Robbins to resurrect his game and his confidence.
- Utah Jazz (15-14) (14) For Andrei Kirilenko, a prostitute from Russia so he can get the most out of his one-free nookie a year pass.
- Toronto Raptors (15-14) (9) For Sam Mitchell, a translator in case some of his international players can't understand him in practice and game situations.
- Washington Wizards (13-13) (12) For Deshawn Stevenson, a beard-trimmer in case he finally realizes he can't compete with Drew Gooden.
- Cleveland Cavaliers (13-16) (19) For Anderson Varejao, a gig on the Simpsons as Sideshow Bob's long lost twin brother.
- Houston Rockets (13-15) (15) For Tracy McGrady, some pimpin' new suits to wear on the sidelines in case he misses another 30 games with his usual assortment of injuries.
- Sacramento Kings (11-15) (18) For Brad Miller, some Sean John pants and a Fubu jacket with a gold chain.
- New Jersey Nets (12-15) (22) For Jason Kidd, a giant UHaul moving van for whenever the team decides to trade him.
- Milwaukee Bucks (11-15) (23) For Yi Jianlan, a new agent that will keep LA, Golden St, Miami, New York and Chicago out of the inevitable no-trade clause his second contract will have.
- Charlotte Bobcats (10-15) (25) For Sean May, a book on the South Beach diet so he can stay in shape while he rehabs his knee.
- Philadelphia 76ers (11-16) (20) For Reggie Evans, some Latex gloves in case he gets a hankerin' for some groping during a game.
- Chicago Bulls (9-16) (21) For John Paxson, a fathead poster of LaMarcus Aldrige the next time someone asks him why he couldn't get one good post player with three lotto picks and a ton of cap space.
- Los Angeles Clippers (9-17) (24) For Mike Dunlevy, five extra roster spots in case the injuries keep piling up.
- Miami Heat (8-20) (26) For Pat Riley, a year's supply of mousse so he can still look good even as his team continues to struggle.
- Seattle Supersonics (8-20) (28) For Kevin Durant, a giant wrist band in case he develops arthritis from shooting too much.
- Memphis Grizzlies (8-19) (27) For Mike Miller, a WNBA jersey the team should force him to wear until he loses that affemanine haircut.
- New York Knicks (8-19) (29) For Eddy Curry, a giant glazed basketball so he actually tries to rebound.
- Minnesota Timberwolves (4-22) (30) For Kevin McHale, the giant pinkslip that Knick fans keep trying to give Isiah since he's completely sabotaged his franchise.
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