Lakers vs Celtics
30 Titles. 45 Finals appearances. Numerous Hall of Famers. The NBA has many rivalries, but no one questions the biggest rivalry of all, the one so big, they even named a video game after it. Lakers vs Celtics. Oh, you don't think it's a big deal? I guess you didn't see Paul Pierce's reaction after the C's finished off the Pistons in Game 6. I guess you didn't see the tears rolling down Kevin Garnett's face during the post game interview. This team knows how big this is and I'm sure the Lakers do too. Ordinarily, I'd give you a brief synopsis of my prognostication, but this is an entirely different bird. I'm breaking this down position by position.
PG: Rajon Rondo vs Derek Fisher Both help the teams in different ways, mostly as facilitators. Rondo's strengths are penetration and defense, Fisher's are clutch shooting and hustle. Fisher's postseason shooting has been off the radar, as he's shot 55% from 3-point range and will certainly make Rondo pay if he's caught cheating on defense. Generally, Rondo plays very good defense and is a top-notch rebounding guard, but he does have a tendency to overplay, so he better be careful not to pay too much attention to Kobe or Fisher will burn him. Edge: Push
SG: Ray Allen vs Kobe Bryant Kobe has come full circle as a basketball player, capturing his first MVP. The biggest adjustment in his game has been his ability to play within the offense and pick and choose when to take over. Always a spectacular scorer, now with improved shot selection and better teammates, Kobe has only two games in which he's shot under 40% while leading all playoff scorers at a 31.9 ppg clip. After going through an ugly playoff funk, Ray Allen, one of the deadliest 3-point shooters in NBA History, reemerged with a strong series against Detroit, a good omen going into the Finals. He's still shooting only 39% from the field this postseason and just 33% from 3-point range, although most of that can be attributed to the bad series he had against Cleveland. Edge: Lakers
SF: Paul Pierce vs Lamar Odom Pierce is the official go-to guy on the Celtics and he's played his best in series clinchers, including a 41 point performance in Game 7 against Cleveland and a 27 point performance in Game 6 against Detroit. Odom is a matchup headache, as he's too big for SF's and too quick for PF's with excellent passing skills and an assortment of low-post moves. He's also an improved rebounder, as he averaged 10.6 rpg during the regular season and 10.3 in the playoffs. If there is one difference, it's that Pierce is a little more consistent as a scorer and gets to the line more frequently. Edge: Celtics
PF: Kevin Garnett vs Vladimir Radmonovic KG has been everything to the Celtics from the standpoint of defense and leadership. He's at his best when facing up from 15 feet and knocking down jumpers from the left and right baseline. The Celtics will need him to dominate in the low block, however, as he has a clear advantage in size and athleticism against Vladimir Radmonovic. Radmonovic must force KG to respect his shot, as that's the only way to keep him out of the paint, where he's his most dominant defensively. Edge: Celtics
C: Kendrick Perkins vs Pau Gasol Perkins has benefitted from the defensive attention KG draws and is usually a cinch to score when he does get whatever limited touches he's alotted. He'll mainly be asked to do the dirty work, this time checking Pau Gasol, who has a beautiful inside game and excellent passing ability. As the Lakers' #2 option, he's been the perfect fit, as his soft hands are reason for Kobe to trust him in a way he could never trust Kwame Brown. While his shooting was off in the San Antonio series, he made up in a big way in Game 5 with a 19-rebound performance to help put the Lakers in the Finals. Edge: Lakers
Bench The Celtics have mostly gone with an eight-man rotation in the postseason. James Posey is a hard-nosed defender who can spell either Pierce or Allen and play some PF when the Celtics decide to go with a quicker lineup. PJ Brown is a savvy veteran who also plays physical defense and a soft touch from the baseline. Sam Cassell, while notorious for his stop-and-pop game, has struggled to get his shot off this postseason while Eddie House has played very well in his limited action. The Lakers have the deepest team in the NBA, as they can easily go 9 deep and not lose much. Jordan Farmar is an excellent penetrator and defender, Sasha Vujacic is a pesky defender with size to play either guard position, and Luke Walton is an excellent passer. Ronny Turiaf is an animal on the offensive glass and plays much bigger than his 6'8" frame. All four are versatile players, the kind Phil Jackson loves to employ in his Triangle Offense. Edge: Lakers
Coaching Phil Jackson is going for his 10th NBA Title and has long been reputable for knowing how to coach superstar players. Getting Kobe Bryant to buy into his system has been a long struggle, but Phil now has the perfect team to surround his superstar with. Phil is also unafraid to take chances, as he'll use his bench to help his team fight out of a deficit and not call timeouts even when his team is struggling. This strategy has proven effective, as it empowers players of lesser talent to take key shots with the game on the line if given the open look. Doc Rivers has also garnered a reputation for using his bench pretty liberally, although in this postseason, he's gone mostly to his veterans. Always a defensive player first, Rivers has taken that philosophy into his coaching, as the Celtics were the toughest team in the league defensively in the regular season. The Celtics are also an excellent passing team, although they sometimes have a tendency to overpass and haven't always been in synch offensively. Edge: Lakers
Verdict Boston has three very good, hungry star players, but the Lakers have the most feared offensive weapon in the NBA and a great team to surround him with. The key for Boston will be keeping Kobe in check, and they'll likely run Pierce, Allen, Posey, and at times even Tony Allen at him to throw him off his rhythm. As for LA, they'll likely treat KG the same defensively, mixing up their coverage between Gasol, Radmonovic and Turiaf. Paul Pierce is very good, but he'll have to play spectacular to keep up with Kobe, and over a seven game series, he may not be able to match that intensity. The Lakers are a deadly offensive team, but they proved in the San Antonio series that even when their shots aren't falling, they can turn it up a notch on the other end and force teams out of rhythm. The Celtics finally figured out their sudden road woes in the Detroit series, but it'll be tough for them to win a game in Staples, where the Lakers are undefeated in postseason play and haven't lost since late March. Lakers in 6
Playoff record: 12-2
Saturday, May 31, 2008
Tuesday, May 20, 2008
NBA Conference Finals Predictions
Eastern Conference Finals
Boston vs Detroit From December going forward, this was the cinch matchup for the Eastern Conference crown, and now that it has come to fruition, expect nothing less than a war. Looking at this series, it's important to note how the regular season series went. Ordinarily I steer clear of this when it comes to analyzing a matchup, but Boston so completely dominated Detroit in regular season play, I can't help but feel they're the favorite in this series. For them to win, however, they'll have to do it with Ray Allen's jumper completely shot. While Allen struggled throughout the Cleveland series, however, Rajon Rondo, Eddie House and James Posey all stepped it up and Paul Pierce saved his best performances for Games 5 and 7. If he can carry that confidence into the Detroit series, I don't think the Pistons will have an answer.
Key Matchup: Rasheed Wallace vs Kevin Garnett If Detroit has a wild card, it's Rasheed Wallace. While his offensive effectiveness has declined in the last couple years, if he can find a rhythm on offense and play like a beast on defense, he could keep Detroit in this series. It will be tough, however, going against the defensive player of the year in KG. Whoever plays with the most emotional stability wins the matchup and ultimately the series. KG has been known to be a bit high strung, but he's less likely to commit those backbreaking technical fouls by letting officials take him out of his game. Prediction: Celtics in 7
Western Conference Finals
Lakers vs Spurs The other conference finals out west should be just as compelling, as these two teams have dominated the past decade, 7 of the last 9 championships between them. There's a good chance one of these teams may hoist a banner at the end of the season. Both teams faced tough semifinal series' so fatigue won't be much of a factor. If anything though, it may affect the Spurs, who are coming off a draining seven game series against the Hornets that took every ounce of energy they had. These are not the youngest guys in the league either, as four of their five starters are in their thirties. It will be imperative that the Spurs get contributions from their bench, and not just Ginobili, as the Lakers have the deepest team in the NBA.
Key Matchup: Bruce Bowen vs Kobe Bryant He's gotten a lot older, but Bowen still has his same old reputation as a physical, borderline dirty defender. Now he draws the toughest assignment in all of basketball in Kobe Bryant. The scary part for Bowen is, the more physically you play Bryant, the more angry it gets him, to the point where by the 5th and 6th games, he's pulling up from 20 and draining jumpers in your face after about six headfakes. You'd rather Kobe the jumpshooter than Kobe the penetrator beat you though, so if Bowen can just contain Kobe until Duncan switches over, SA has a chance. That will be much harder than in years past, however, as he can't take his eyes off Pau and he can't really guard Radmonovic either, as that takes him away from the hoop. Prediction: Lakers in 7
Playoff Record: 10-2
Boston vs Detroit From December going forward, this was the cinch matchup for the Eastern Conference crown, and now that it has come to fruition, expect nothing less than a war. Looking at this series, it's important to note how the regular season series went. Ordinarily I steer clear of this when it comes to analyzing a matchup, but Boston so completely dominated Detroit in regular season play, I can't help but feel they're the favorite in this series. For them to win, however, they'll have to do it with Ray Allen's jumper completely shot. While Allen struggled throughout the Cleveland series, however, Rajon Rondo, Eddie House and James Posey all stepped it up and Paul Pierce saved his best performances for Games 5 and 7. If he can carry that confidence into the Detroit series, I don't think the Pistons will have an answer.
Key Matchup: Rasheed Wallace vs Kevin Garnett If Detroit has a wild card, it's Rasheed Wallace. While his offensive effectiveness has declined in the last couple years, if he can find a rhythm on offense and play like a beast on defense, he could keep Detroit in this series. It will be tough, however, going against the defensive player of the year in KG. Whoever plays with the most emotional stability wins the matchup and ultimately the series. KG has been known to be a bit high strung, but he's less likely to commit those backbreaking technical fouls by letting officials take him out of his game. Prediction: Celtics in 7
Western Conference Finals
Lakers vs Spurs The other conference finals out west should be just as compelling, as these two teams have dominated the past decade, 7 of the last 9 championships between them. There's a good chance one of these teams may hoist a banner at the end of the season. Both teams faced tough semifinal series' so fatigue won't be much of a factor. If anything though, it may affect the Spurs, who are coming off a draining seven game series against the Hornets that took every ounce of energy they had. These are not the youngest guys in the league either, as four of their five starters are in their thirties. It will be imperative that the Spurs get contributions from their bench, and not just Ginobili, as the Lakers have the deepest team in the NBA.
Key Matchup: Bruce Bowen vs Kobe Bryant He's gotten a lot older, but Bowen still has his same old reputation as a physical, borderline dirty defender. Now he draws the toughest assignment in all of basketball in Kobe Bryant. The scary part for Bowen is, the more physically you play Bryant, the more angry it gets him, to the point where by the 5th and 6th games, he's pulling up from 20 and draining jumpers in your face after about six headfakes. You'd rather Kobe the jumpshooter than Kobe the penetrator beat you though, so if Bowen can just contain Kobe until Duncan switches over, SA has a chance. That will be much harder than in years past, however, as he can't take his eyes off Pau and he can't really guard Radmonovic either, as that takes him away from the hoop. Prediction: Lakers in 7
Playoff Record: 10-2
Monday, May 5, 2008
Round 2 NBA Predictions
Eastern Conference
Celtics vs Cavaliers This intriguing second round matchup pits the most explosive offensive player in the Eastern Conference against the NBA's best star trio. The Celts' Big 3 got put to the test in the last round, though, as they got more of a battle than anticipated from the upstart Atlanta Hawks. The Hawks extended a series many thought would be a sweep to seven games by winning all three games in Atlanta. Boston was able to close out the series, winning the decisive seventh game by 34 points while playing with the kind of defensive intensity that was curiously absent in Atlanta. While the Cavs are not as athletic as the Hawks, they have the same type of big-time scorer in LeBron James, except James is a better passer and rebounder than Joe Johnson. The Cavs also have plenty of good perimeter shooters, so it'll be important for the Celtics not to get too lured in by James's drives to the hoop.
Key Matchup: Rajon Rondo vs Delonte West The two PG's should be very familiar with each other by now after practicing against each other last year in Boston. Each is further down in the pecking order of the starting rotation, but each plays a big key in this series. West's job will be to make the defense respect him. He hit some big shots in the Washington series, including the game winner in the Game 4, but faces a much tougher test with the swarming defense of Rondo to deal with. For Rondo, the key will be getting Pierce, Allen and KG their shots and managing the game, something he was far more effective at in the Celtics' home games. Defensively, he just needs to stay at home on West and not be too tempted to play help defense on LeBron. If he can play within himself and not buckle under the pressure he'll face away from Boston, he'll be the key in helping the Celtics get that one key road victory they'll need in this series.
Prediction: Celtics in 6
Pistons vs Magic This is a far cry from last year's first round matchup, one in which the Pistons swept aside the young Magic. With Dwight Howard recording three 20-20 games, the Magic easily disposed of the Raptors in five games and are pumped up for the powerhouse Pistons, who are looking to make their sixth straight Eastern Conference Finals appearance. Detroit had a small scare from Philadelphia in round 1, losing two of the first three games and falling behind by 10 at halftime of Game 4. Obviously, at that point, something clicked and the Pistons transformed into the monster everyone thought they'd be going into the postseason. The Magic should present a good challenge for Detroit, as they have a front line that's about equal to the Pistons. Their inferior backcourt, however, may be their shortcoming if they do hope to pull an upset here.
Key Matchup: Rasheed Wallace vs Rashard Lewis Both are excellent supporting players who compliment the stars very well. Rasheed has long been the enforcer on the Pistons, a defensive whiz in the paint who makes the jobs of Billups and Hamilton easier. He has an excellent post-up game and can even draw the defense out with the three. Rashard shoots threes too, far more frequently and also has the mid-range game to go with it. His presence on the floor has done wonders to free Howard and Turkoglu for easier shots. For Detroit to win, Wallace must dominate inside and must also keep his emotions in check, as he has a tendency to blow up at officials and take himself out of games. Lewis needs to score consistently even if played physically and drag Wallace away from the hoop to give his teammates easy looks inside. Whoever performs their role better will likely experience the most team success.
Prediction: Pistons in 5
Western Conference
Lakers vs Jazz The Jazz have got to be nervous right about now. The Lakers have their strongest team since the 2002 Championship season and are so deep, even losing Andrew Bynum for the year doesn't seem to faze them. They have the most explosve offensive weapon in all of basketball in Kobe Bryant, who finally captured his long-deserved MVP trophy, and if that's not enough, the amazing chemistry of Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom. The Jazz overcame a very physical series with Houston, getting by on a sensational series from Deron Williams while the Lakers are well-rested, coming off a four-game sweep against the Nuggets. For them to beat the Lakers, however, they'll need more than just Williams, as the front line, in particular Carlos Boozer, will need to step up.
Key Matchup: Lamar Odom vs Andrei Kirilenko Kirilenko is the only player size-wise who can check Odom, and while he did a good job early in the Houston series against Tracy McGrady, his defensive effectiveness lessened as he became less involved in the offense. If Boozer can't get on track, it's important to keep Kirilenko active if the Jazz want to have a chance in the series. His defense becomes that much more valuable when he actually gets a few touches here and there.
Prediction: Lakers in 6
Hornets vs Spurs He's not quite on the level of a Kobe Bryant, but there's no denying the major impact Chris Paul has had on the NBA's most surprising team. The Spurs' would be ill advised trying to guard him the way they did Steve Nash, as Paul is quicker, more athletic and can get his shot off in traffic. Meanwhile, the Hornets also have a bruising guard by the name of Bonzi Wells who always manhandles Ginobili because he's big enough to post him up and three leapers to check the always-unstoppable Tim Duncan.
Key Matchup: Tyson Chandler vs Tim Duncan Duncan's monster series against Phoenix had everything to do with the Suns' weak interior defense, but the Hornets' interior D is anything but weak. Aside from Chandler, who's becoming a force in the paint, they also have a couple pogo-sticks off the bench in Chris Andersen and Hilton Armstrong. They have enough length to force Duncan to change his shots and keep him out of rhythm. They'll also do an excellent job of keeping Tony Parker out of the paint. The more they can limit Parker's penetration and Duncan's post game, the better shot the Hornets have in this series.
Prediction: Hornets in 7
First Round Record: 7-1
Celtics vs Cavaliers This intriguing second round matchup pits the most explosive offensive player in the Eastern Conference against the NBA's best star trio. The Celts' Big 3 got put to the test in the last round, though, as they got more of a battle than anticipated from the upstart Atlanta Hawks. The Hawks extended a series many thought would be a sweep to seven games by winning all three games in Atlanta. Boston was able to close out the series, winning the decisive seventh game by 34 points while playing with the kind of defensive intensity that was curiously absent in Atlanta. While the Cavs are not as athletic as the Hawks, they have the same type of big-time scorer in LeBron James, except James is a better passer and rebounder than Joe Johnson. The Cavs also have plenty of good perimeter shooters, so it'll be important for the Celtics not to get too lured in by James's drives to the hoop.
Key Matchup: Rajon Rondo vs Delonte West The two PG's should be very familiar with each other by now after practicing against each other last year in Boston. Each is further down in the pecking order of the starting rotation, but each plays a big key in this series. West's job will be to make the defense respect him. He hit some big shots in the Washington series, including the game winner in the Game 4, but faces a much tougher test with the swarming defense of Rondo to deal with. For Rondo, the key will be getting Pierce, Allen and KG their shots and managing the game, something he was far more effective at in the Celtics' home games. Defensively, he just needs to stay at home on West and not be too tempted to play help defense on LeBron. If he can play within himself and not buckle under the pressure he'll face away from Boston, he'll be the key in helping the Celtics get that one key road victory they'll need in this series.
Prediction: Celtics in 6
Pistons vs Magic This is a far cry from last year's first round matchup, one in which the Pistons swept aside the young Magic. With Dwight Howard recording three 20-20 games, the Magic easily disposed of the Raptors in five games and are pumped up for the powerhouse Pistons, who are looking to make their sixth straight Eastern Conference Finals appearance. Detroit had a small scare from Philadelphia in round 1, losing two of the first three games and falling behind by 10 at halftime of Game 4. Obviously, at that point, something clicked and the Pistons transformed into the monster everyone thought they'd be going into the postseason. The Magic should present a good challenge for Detroit, as they have a front line that's about equal to the Pistons. Their inferior backcourt, however, may be their shortcoming if they do hope to pull an upset here.
Key Matchup: Rasheed Wallace vs Rashard Lewis Both are excellent supporting players who compliment the stars very well. Rasheed has long been the enforcer on the Pistons, a defensive whiz in the paint who makes the jobs of Billups and Hamilton easier. He has an excellent post-up game and can even draw the defense out with the three. Rashard shoots threes too, far more frequently and also has the mid-range game to go with it. His presence on the floor has done wonders to free Howard and Turkoglu for easier shots. For Detroit to win, Wallace must dominate inside and must also keep his emotions in check, as he has a tendency to blow up at officials and take himself out of games. Lewis needs to score consistently even if played physically and drag Wallace away from the hoop to give his teammates easy looks inside. Whoever performs their role better will likely experience the most team success.
Prediction: Pistons in 5
Western Conference
Lakers vs Jazz The Jazz have got to be nervous right about now. The Lakers have their strongest team since the 2002 Championship season and are so deep, even losing Andrew Bynum for the year doesn't seem to faze them. They have the most explosve offensive weapon in all of basketball in Kobe Bryant, who finally captured his long-deserved MVP trophy, and if that's not enough, the amazing chemistry of Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom. The Jazz overcame a very physical series with Houston, getting by on a sensational series from Deron Williams while the Lakers are well-rested, coming off a four-game sweep against the Nuggets. For them to beat the Lakers, however, they'll need more than just Williams, as the front line, in particular Carlos Boozer, will need to step up.
Key Matchup: Lamar Odom vs Andrei Kirilenko Kirilenko is the only player size-wise who can check Odom, and while he did a good job early in the Houston series against Tracy McGrady, his defensive effectiveness lessened as he became less involved in the offense. If Boozer can't get on track, it's important to keep Kirilenko active if the Jazz want to have a chance in the series. His defense becomes that much more valuable when he actually gets a few touches here and there.
Prediction: Lakers in 6
Hornets vs Spurs He's not quite on the level of a Kobe Bryant, but there's no denying the major impact Chris Paul has had on the NBA's most surprising team. The Spurs' would be ill advised trying to guard him the way they did Steve Nash, as Paul is quicker, more athletic and can get his shot off in traffic. Meanwhile, the Hornets also have a bruising guard by the name of Bonzi Wells who always manhandles Ginobili because he's big enough to post him up and three leapers to check the always-unstoppable Tim Duncan.
Key Matchup: Tyson Chandler vs Tim Duncan Duncan's monster series against Phoenix had everything to do with the Suns' weak interior defense, but the Hornets' interior D is anything but weak. Aside from Chandler, who's becoming a force in the paint, they also have a couple pogo-sticks off the bench in Chris Andersen and Hilton Armstrong. They have enough length to force Duncan to change his shots and keep him out of rhythm. They'll also do an excellent job of keeping Tony Parker out of the paint. The more they can limit Parker's penetration and Duncan's post game, the better shot the Hornets have in this series.
Prediction: Hornets in 7
First Round Record: 7-1
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