Saturday, May 31, 2008

Throwback Finals

Lakers vs Celtics
30 Titles. 45 Finals appearances. Numerous Hall of Famers. The NBA has many rivalries, but no one questions the biggest rivalry of all, the one so big, they even named a video game after it. Lakers vs Celtics. Oh, you don't think it's a big deal? I guess you didn't see Paul Pierce's reaction after the C's finished off the Pistons in Game 6. I guess you didn't see the tears rolling down Kevin Garnett's face during the post game interview. This team knows how big this is and I'm sure the Lakers do too. Ordinarily, I'd give you a brief synopsis of my prognostication, but this is an entirely different bird. I'm breaking this down position by position.
PG: Rajon Rondo vs Derek Fisher Both help the teams in different ways, mostly as facilitators. Rondo's strengths are penetration and defense, Fisher's are clutch shooting and hustle. Fisher's postseason shooting has been off the radar, as he's shot 55% from 3-point range and will certainly make Rondo pay if he's caught cheating on defense. Generally, Rondo plays very good defense and is a top-notch rebounding guard, but he does have a tendency to overplay, so he better be careful not to pay too much attention to Kobe or Fisher will burn him. Edge: Push
SG: Ray Allen vs Kobe Bryant
Kobe has come full circle as a basketball player, capturing his first MVP. The biggest adjustment in his game has been his ability to play within the offense and pick and choose when to take over. Always a spectacular scorer, now with improved shot selection and better teammates, Kobe has only two games in which he's shot under 40% while leading all playoff scorers at a 31.9 ppg clip. After going through an ugly playoff funk, Ray Allen, one of the deadliest 3-point shooters in NBA History, reemerged with a strong series against Detroit, a good omen going into the Finals. He's still shooting only 39% from the field this postseason and just 33% from 3-point range, although most of that can be attributed to the bad series he had against Cleveland. Edge: Lakers
SF: Paul Pierce vs Lamar Odom
Pierce is the official go-to guy on the Celtics and he's played his best in series clinchers, including a 41 point performance in Game 7 against Cleveland and a 27 point performance in Game 6 against Detroit. Odom is a matchup headache, as he's too big for SF's and too quick for PF's with excellent passing skills and an assortment of low-post moves. He's also an improved rebounder, as he averaged 10.6 rpg during the regular season and 10.3 in the playoffs. If there is one difference, it's that Pierce is a little more consistent as a scorer and gets to the line more frequently. Edge: Celtics
PF: Kevin Garnett vs Vladimir Radmonovic
KG has been everything to the Celtics from the standpoint of defense and leadership. He's at his best when facing up from 15 feet and knocking down jumpers from the left and right baseline. The Celtics will need him to dominate in the low block, however, as he has a clear advantage in size and athleticism against Vladimir Radmonovic. Radmonovic must force KG to respect his shot, as that's the only way to keep him out of the paint, where he's his most dominant defensively. Edge: Celtics
C: Kendrick Perkins vs Pau Gasol
Perkins has benefitted from the defensive attention KG draws and is usually a cinch to score when he does get whatever limited touches he's alotted. He'll mainly be asked to do the dirty work, this time checking Pau Gasol, who has a beautiful inside game and excellent passing ability. As the Lakers' #2 option, he's been the perfect fit, as his soft hands are reason for Kobe to trust him in a way he could never trust Kwame Brown. While his shooting was off in the San Antonio series, he made up in a big way in Game 5 with a 19-rebound performance to help put the Lakers in the Finals. Edge: Lakers
Bench
The Celtics have mostly gone with an eight-man rotation in the postseason. James Posey is a hard-nosed defender who can spell either Pierce or Allen and play some PF when the Celtics decide to go with a quicker lineup. PJ Brown is a savvy veteran who also plays physical defense and a soft touch from the baseline. Sam Cassell, while notorious for his stop-and-pop game, has struggled to get his shot off this postseason while Eddie House has played very well in his limited action. The Lakers have the deepest team in the NBA, as they can easily go 9 deep and not lose much. Jordan Farmar is an excellent penetrator and defender, Sasha Vujacic is a pesky defender with size to play either guard position, and Luke Walton is an excellent passer. Ronny Turiaf is an animal on the offensive glass and plays much bigger than his 6'8" frame. All four are versatile players, the kind Phil Jackson loves to employ in his Triangle Offense. Edge: Lakers
Coaching
Phil Jackson is going for his 10th NBA Title and has long been reputable for knowing how to coach superstar players. Getting Kobe Bryant to buy into his system has been a long struggle, but Phil now has the perfect team to surround his superstar with. Phil is also unafraid to take chances, as he'll use his bench to help his team fight out of a deficit and not call timeouts even when his team is struggling. This strategy has proven effective, as it empowers players of lesser talent to take key shots with the game on the line if given the open look. Doc Rivers has also garnered a reputation for using his bench pretty liberally, although in this postseason, he's gone mostly to his veterans. Always a defensive player first, Rivers has taken that philosophy into his coaching, as the Celtics were the toughest team in the league defensively in the regular season. The Celtics are also an excellent passing team, although they sometimes have a tendency to overpass and haven't always been in synch offensively. Edge: Lakers
Verdict
Boston has three very good, hungry star players, but the Lakers have the most feared offensive weapon in the NBA and a great team to surround him with. The key for Boston will be keeping Kobe in check, and they'll likely run Pierce, Allen, Posey, and at times even Tony Allen at him to throw him off his rhythm. As for LA, they'll likely treat KG the same defensively, mixing up their coverage between Gasol, Radmonovic and Turiaf. Paul Pierce is very good, but he'll have to play spectacular to keep up with Kobe, and over a seven game series, he may not be able to match that intensity. The Lakers are a deadly offensive team, but they proved in the San Antonio series that even when their shots aren't falling, they can turn it up a notch on the other end and force teams out of rhythm. The Celtics finally figured out their sudden road woes in the Detroit series, but it'll be tough for them to win a game in Staples, where the Lakers are undefeated in postseason play and haven't lost since late March. Lakers in 6

Playoff record: 12-2

No comments: