Monday, May 5, 2008

Round 2 NBA Predictions

Eastern Conference
Celtics vs Cavaliers
This intriguing second round matchup pits the most explosive offensive player in the Eastern Conference against the NBA's best star trio. The Celts' Big 3 got put to the test in the last round, though, as they got more of a battle than anticipated from the upstart Atlanta Hawks. The Hawks extended a series many thought would be a sweep to seven games by winning all three games in Atlanta. Boston was able to close out the series, winning the decisive seventh game by 34 points while playing with the kind of defensive intensity that was curiously absent in Atlanta. While the Cavs are not as athletic as the Hawks, they have the same type of big-time scorer in LeBron James, except James is a better passer and rebounder than Joe Johnson. The Cavs also have plenty of good perimeter shooters, so it'll be important for the Celtics not to get too lured in by James's drives to the hoop.
Key Matchup: Rajon Rondo vs Delonte West The two PG's should be very familiar with each other by now after practicing against each other last year in Boston. Each is further down in the pecking order of the starting rotation, but each plays a big key in this series. West's job will be to make the defense respect him. He hit some big shots in the Washington series, including the game winner in the Game 4, but faces a much tougher test with the swarming defense of Rondo to deal with. For Rondo, the key will be getting Pierce, Allen and KG their shots and managing the game, something he was far more effective at in the Celtics' home games. Defensively, he just needs to stay at home on West and not be too tempted to play help defense on LeBron. If he can play within himself and not buckle under the pressure he'll face away from Boston, he'll be the key in helping the Celtics get that one key road victory they'll need in this series.
Prediction: Celtics in 6

Pistons vs Magic
This is a far cry from last year's first round matchup, one in which the Pistons swept aside the young Magic. With Dwight Howard recording three 20-20 games, the Magic easily disposed of the Raptors in five games and are pumped up for the powerhouse Pistons, who are looking to make their sixth straight Eastern Conference Finals appearance. Detroit had a small scare from Philadelphia in round 1, losing two of the first three games and falling behind by 10 at halftime of Game 4. Obviously, at that point, something clicked and the Pistons transformed into the monster everyone thought they'd be going into the postseason. The Magic should present a good challenge for Detroit, as they have a front line that's about equal to the Pistons. Their inferior backcourt, however, may be their shortcoming if they do hope to pull an upset here.
Key Matchup: Rasheed Wallace vs Rashard Lewis Both are excellent supporting players who compliment the stars very well. Rasheed has long been the enforcer on the Pistons, a defensive whiz in the paint who makes the jobs of Billups and Hamilton easier. He has an excellent post-up game and can even draw the defense out with the three. Rashard shoots threes too, far more frequently and also has the mid-range game to go with it. His presence on the floor has done wonders to free Howard and Turkoglu for easier shots. For Detroit to win, Wallace must dominate inside and must also keep his emotions in check, as he has a tendency to blow up at officials and take himself out of games. Lewis needs to score consistently even if played physically and drag Wallace away from the hoop to give his teammates easy looks inside. Whoever performs their role better will likely experience the most team success.
Prediction: Pistons in 5

Western Conference

Lakers vs Jazz
The Jazz have got to be nervous right about now. The Lakers have their strongest team since the 2002 Championship season and are so deep, even losing Andrew Bynum for the year doesn't seem to faze them. They have the most explosve offensive weapon in all of basketball in Kobe Bryant, who finally captured his long-deserved MVP trophy, and if that's not enough, the amazing chemistry of Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom. The Jazz overcame a very physical series with Houston, getting by on a sensational series from Deron Williams while the Lakers are well-rested, coming off a four-game sweep against the Nuggets. For them to beat the Lakers, however, they'll need more than just Williams, as the front line, in particular Carlos Boozer, will need to step up.
Key Matchup: Lamar Odom vs Andrei Kirilenko Kirilenko is the only player size-wise who can check Odom, and while he did a good job early in the Houston series against Tracy McGrady, his defensive effectiveness lessened as he became less involved in the offense. If Boozer can't get on track, it's important to keep Kirilenko active if the Jazz want to have a chance in the series. His defense becomes that much more valuable when he actually gets a few touches here and there.
Prediction: Lakers in 6

Hornets vs Spurs
He's not quite on the level of a Kobe Bryant, but there's no denying the major impact Chris Paul has had on the NBA's most surprising team. The Spurs' would be ill advised trying to guard him the way they did Steve Nash, as Paul is quicker, more athletic and can get his shot off in traffic. Meanwhile, the Hornets also have a bruising guard by the name of Bonzi Wells who always manhandles Ginobili because he's big enough to post him up and three leapers to check the always-unstoppable Tim Duncan.
Key Matchup: Tyson Chandler vs Tim Duncan Duncan's monster series against Phoenix had everything to do with the Suns' weak interior defense, but the Hornets' interior D is anything but weak. Aside from Chandler, who's becoming a force in the paint, they also have a couple pogo-sticks off the bench in Chris Andersen and Hilton Armstrong. They have enough length to force Duncan to change his shots and keep him out of rhythm. They'll also do an excellent job of keeping Tony Parker out of the paint. The more they can limit Parker's penetration and Duncan's post game, the better shot the Hornets have in this series.
Prediction: Hornets in 7

First Round Record: 7-1

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