NBA Postseason Awards and 1st Round Predictions

MVP: Kobe Bryant, Lakers I felt the last couple years he should have won this award, but with his scoring as high as its ever been and his assists going up thanks to finally having good teammates to pass the ball to, there's little doubt Kobe deserves this award. As tough as the West has been this year, to finish ahead of teams like Utah, San Antonio and Phoenix, who have just as much, if not more talent than this team is a tribute to Kobe's overall brilliance. Now that the playoffs are upon him, he's got every shot to carry this team to the Finals and a shot at possibly a fourth ring.

Rookie of the Year: Kevin Durant, Sonics He was the only rookie out of this class to play close to a star level, as Durant is already a natural scorer facing up. His poor shooting can be somewhat attributed to his shot selection, which will improve over time, but also due to the fact that he was often playing out of position. He's probably more of a SF, as he has a very good mid-range game, but he was streaky from the perimeter at the SG spot. Al Horford and Luis Scola had solid years as well and experience a bit more team success, but their scoring numbers aren't close to Durant's and they didn't get quite enough rebounds to make up for it.

Coach of the Year: Byron Scott, Hornets One of the big keys for the Hornets this year was staying healthy, but even so, Scott's team, outside of Chris Paul, still had a lot of question marks and he deserves a lot of credit for getting so much out of Tyson Chandler and Peja Stojakovic, the former a raw talent still trying to reach his potential and the latter a shooting star who had missed parts of the last two years with injuries. He also uses his bench well, letting guys like Jannero Pargo and Julian Wright earn minutes through their strong play and the team chemistry he's had has allowed the Hornets to compete with the West's elite and surprise everybody by clinching the stacked Southwest Division.

Defensive Player of the Year: Kevin Garnett, Celtics Doc Rivers's hiring of Tom Thibodeau to manage the defense was a brilliant move, and the alpha dog in his system has been none other than KG. His rebounding and blocked shot numbers are actually surprisingly low for his standards, but a big part of the Celtics' 66 wins has been giving up the fewest points per game in the NBA. Garnett's presence in the paint has allowed Allen, Pierce and Rondo to gamble for steals. He's constantly active, making plays to disrupt ball rotation and force bad shots. The truth is, Garnett has always been a standout player defensively. He's just getting a chance to show it more on a team built for success.

Most Improved Player: Al Jefferson, Timberwolves While he's nowhere close to KG defensively, Jefferson's one of a small handful of players to average over 20 ppg and 10 rpg this past season. Since he's pretty much the T-Wolves only reliable offensive weapon, he's gotten more touches and has developed a rhythm with his smooth post-up game. He did it despite playing out of position at center for much of the year, so it's imperative that McHale find a good big man to take pressure off of him.

Sixth Man of the Year: Manu Ginobili, Spurs Ginobili led all reserves in scoring and has thrived in the role, as his hustle and energy is actually more valuable on the second unit. Don't be fooled though, because you know Popovich will have this fearless clutch shooter out on the floor in crunch time. Whether it's acrobatic shots or fancy passes, Ginobili is a playmaker deluxe and a real pain in the ass to play against.

Round 1
Eastern Conference

Celtics vs Hawks This should be a good warmup series for the Celtics and a chance to rest plenty of their starters if they can take care of business. The Hawks have a lot of young talent, the problem is they're inexperienced on the big stage. Against a tough defense like Boston, they'll be forced to rely too much on Joe Johnson, who's their only real threat as a scorer.
Key Matchup: Rondo vs Bibby If the Hawks want any shot in this series, Bibby is going to have to win this battle. He has the edge in postseason experience, but as long as Rondo plays within himself and plays the same harrassing defense on Bibby he plays on everyone else, the C's should win handily.
Prediction: Celtics in 4

Pistons vs Sixers The Pistons have as deep a team as the 2004 squad that won the NBA title, as Joe Dumars' draft brilliance has landed the Pistons a good enough bench to give the starters rest in key stretches. That bench will be sorely needed in this series as well, as the Pistons go against a young, athletic Sixers' team playing with a ton of confidence.
Key Matchup: Tayshaun Prince vs Andre Igoudala The big key for Prince won't be to shut Igoudala down, as that's very hard to do, but to force him to shoot a low percentage and work some of his unorthodox offense into the picture. As long as Prince is active on defense and doesn't get shut out of the offense, the Pistons have an easy series. If Iggy goes off though, they're in for a battle.
Prediction: Pistons in 5

Magic vs Raptors These two teams are built in similar fashion. Both have dominant PF's who control the paint for their respective ballclubs and plenty of great shooters to surround them with. The difference is Orlando's a little bit better and Toronto's backcourt isn't consistent enough to exploit the Magic's glaring weakness in their own backcourt.
Key Matchup: Jamario Moon vs Hedo Turkoglu Moon is the X-factor in this series. He'll be asked to guard the Magic's most improved player and help out Bosh on the boards, as he'll have his hands full with man-beast Dwight Howard. If he can take away Turkoglu as a weapon, the Raptors will limit the Magic's scoring options and put more pressure on Howard to deliver inside.
Prediction: Magic in 6

Cavaliers vs Wizards The Wizards have been sent home, courtesy of these same Cavs, in each of the last two years. Still, they come into this series with a lot of swagger with Arenas and Butler finally healed from injuries. Cleveland, meanwhile, has struggled to find an identity since making the blockbuster trade that sent Larry Hughes and Drew Gooden to Chicago. Ben Wallace has been laboring in back pain, Wally Sczezerbiak has cratered under pressure, shooting very poorly, and Daniel Gibson has been slow recovering from an injury that put him out most of the second half. LeBron is capable of a monster series and the Cavs need one from him if they want to get any further than round 1.
Key Matchup: DeShawn Stevenson vs LeBron James If history is any indication, Stevenson would be ill-served to badmouth LeBron James. The last thing you want to do to a competitor like James is piss him off. While he's certainly an able defender, he better stay in front of LeBron as much as possible and hope his shot isn't falling. Otherwise, he'll live in infamy with the Craig Ehlos and Bryon Russells of the world.
Prediction: Cavaliers in 7

Western Conference

Lakers vs Nuggets This should be an entertaining, high-scoring series with three of the top five scorers in the league playing. A high scoring game could be Denver's worst nightmare too, as LA has one gunslinger in Kobe Bryant who can outduel the explosive tandem of Carmelo Anthony and Allen Iverson. He also has two teammates in Lamar Odom and Pau Gasol with brilliant post-games, with both players complimenting each other extremely well. As good as Anthony and Iverson are as individuals, they both need the ball to dominate and neither is a good enough outside shooter to stretch the defense.
Key Matchup: Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom vs Marcus Camby and Kenyon Martin For Denver to have a shot in this series, they'll have to get it done on the defensive end. If Camby and Martin can rough up and intimidate the Lakers' stars, Denver has a shot in this series, provided they can also get contributions off the bench from Linas Kleiza and JR Smith.
Prediction: Lakers in 6

Hornets vs Mavericks If any series is ripe with upset potential, this is it. Dallas has been on fire since Nowitzki returned from injury and they're adjusting to playing with PG magician Jason Kidd. The Hornets, meanwhile, are a little green on the big stage and have never won a game in Dallas. If they can't defend the homecourt, they maybe going home early this year.
Key Matchup: Jason Kidd vs Chris Paul This is the biggest intrigue surrounding the series. Jason Kidd has been one of the premier PG's in the NBA for the past decade, but now Paul is looking to take the torch from him. Whoever does the best job of getting their teammates involved is coming out victorious in this series.
Prediction: Mavericks in 6

Spurs vs Suns The matchup of the first round, without question. Whoever wins this series makes a good case for the conference finals, maybe even the NBA Finals. The Suns have been hell bent on revenge against the Spurs, but knew the only way to do it was to get a strong half court player. So they took a gamble with chemistry and traded for the biggest, strongest player in the league, the Shaq-daddy himself. While Phoenix has had its ups and downs defensively and has had some trouble adjusting to slowing things down with O'Neal on the floor, if anyone has benefitted from this trade, it's Amare Stoudemire. He's showing more of his game now that he's playing his natural position of PF and taking bigger, slower players off the dribble while showing improving range on his jump shot. For Phoenix to win and overcome their hurdle, however, he'll have to outshine Tim Duncan, which is by no stretch of the imagination easy.
Key Matchup: Amare Stoudemire vs Kurt Thomas Thomas is a rugged defender, but he'll undoubtedly have his hands full with Amare, who's becoming a load in the low block. The biggest key will be playing physically enough to frustaurate Stoudemire the same way he frustaurated Duncan at times last year. He'll get his help with Oberto and at times Duncan checking him, but with Shaq on the team, he'll get more room to make his moves, which could spell doom for the defending champs.
Prediction: Spurs in 7

Rockets vs Jazz This is a rematch of last year's thrilling first round series, one that started so well for Tracy McGrady, Yao Ming and the Rockets but ended so badly with the Jazz's talent and depth outlasting the Rockets in a heartbreaking Game 7 loss. They did just enough to clinch home court advantage this year, riding out a 22-game winning streak even with Yao's season-ending foot injury and barely holding off the surging Jazz, even after losing to them on the road in the second-to-last game of the year. Not getting home court advantage could be troublesome for the Jazz, as they'll once again have to steal a game in Houston to win this series. They have a huge opportunity to do so as well, with Rafer Alston out for the first two games.
Key Matchup: Luis Scola, Chuck Hayes and Carl Landry vs Carlos Boozer One of the areas the Rockets upgraded from last season is at PF, swiping Scola from the Spurs and getting a second-round steal in Landry to compliment Hayes. Hayes is the smallest of the three big forwards, but he's also the most experienced and the toughest defensively. They'll all have their hands full with Boozer, but if Scola and Landry can provide some bonus offense, they could swing things more in the Rockets' favor. Tragically, though, without Yao in the middle, the Rockets may not be quite the same offensive force, so their defense will have to be strong for seven games against the sharpest-shooting team in the league.
Prediction: Jazz in 6