Introducing the Gonzaga Theory

In 1999, a small school in Spokane, Washington entered the NCAA Basketball Tournament with few expectations. Seeded 10th and filled with a bevy of shooters, the Gonzaga Bulldogs took the tournament by storm, upsetting Minnesota, Stanford and Florida and taking eventual-champion Connecticut into the last minute before finally bowing out in the Elite Eight. This same team would come back the next two years, seeded 10th and 12th respectively, and march their way into the Sweet 16 each time. Eventually, they'd start scheduling tougher preseason opponents and earned a spot in the Top 25, as they routinely won their conference to become a trendy March pick. Except a funny thing happened. A year after their third straight Sweet 16 appearance, Gonzaga had their most dominant year in school history, winning the conference and earning the 6th seed in the tournament, only to be upset in round 1 by Wyoming. Two years later, they earned an even higher seeding, #2, and lost in round 2 to Nevada. The following year, a #3 seeding and a second round loss to Texas Tech again ended the Bulldogs' season prematurely. They frustaurated countless tourney pool entrants, most of whom befuddled by Gonzaga's sudden lack of success in the tournament.
The answer was simple, however. Gonzaga, thanks to its large national exposure, had suddenly gone from underrated to overhyped. Experienced college coaches scouted them and found their weaknesses. The pressure mounted and suddenly, the same looseness Gonzaga played with as an underdog was not visible with the pressure on. They had gone from the hunter to the hunted.
In watching West Virginia completely dismantle Oklahoma last night, I saw them play pressure-free, a complete contrast to the way they played against Pittsburgh to end the regular season, when they were wounded, nervous, and felt the pressure as their offense slogged through the game. They would lose 13-9 and miss out on a shot at the National Title. While this is only a two-game sample, you must also remember this same West Virginia team went into the Sugar Bowl against Georgia just two years ago with the same low expectations they had against OU and shellacked the Bulldogs 38-28. There are certain teams that seem to play better when the pressure is off and no one is taking them seriously. I can cite several more examples as well that fully and appropriately fit the Gonzaga theory.

2004 Detroit Pistons Won the NBA Championship as the 3rd seed, defeating the Los Angeles Lakers 4 games to 1. They finished 2nd in the division, 7 games behind the Pacers. Yet in 2002, 2003, 2005, 2006 and 2007, when they were division champs, the Pistons lost four times in the Eastern Conference Finals and once in the NBA Finals.

2006 Pittsburgh Steelers Won the Super Bowl as the lowest seed in the AFC, winning three straight road games against the Bengals, Colts and Broncos before beating the Seahawks. Yet in 2002 and 2004, they finished with the best record in the AFC and lost both Championship games at home to New England.

2006 St. Louis Cardinals Finished the regular season with 83 wins, the 6th most in the NL, yet beat the 88-win Padres and the 97-win Mets before handling the Detroit Tigers 4 games to 1 in the World Series. In 2004 and 2005, they won over 100 games yet were swept in the World Series and lost in the NLCS.

2004 and 2005 Houston Astros Reached the NLCS and the World Series as a Wild Card, yet as division winners in 1997, 1998, 1999 and 2001, they lost in the first round four times.

1999 North Carolina Tar Heels Made the Final Four as the 8th seed, yet lost in the first round to Weber St. as the #3 seed the previous year and lost in the second round to Penn St. as the #2 seed the following year.

The result of these teams' success is driven from a number of factors. One is that they may have gotten hot at the right time and played beyond their usual expectations (Pistons, Tar Heels, Astros, Steelers, Knicks). Another is that they weren't well-scouted before but were exposed once people caught on to their style of play (West Virginia, Gonzaga). In some cases, a number of key veterans were in the twilight of their career and the manager/coach found the perfect mix of role players to compliment the veterans, who were driven to succeed before their careers ended (Cardinals). In any event, I introduce this new theory with the hopes of benefitting from it in the future.