Saturday, January 19, 2008

NFL Conference Championship Predictions

AFC Championship
San Diego at New England
Line: Patriots by 14.5

At about this time last year, everyone was down on the Chargers, criticizing the team's inability to step up in big games and Marty Schottenheimer took the rap for it. He was canned in favor of Norv Turner, a move that raised eyebrows throughout Charger Nation. After all, Marty was coming off a 14-2 season before his team's 2nd round meltdown against the Pats. Four weeks into the regular season, the Chargers were 1-3, coming off an embarrassing home loss to the Chiefs, and every person in San Diego was about ready to throw Turner off a cliff. Suddenly, however, the team started clicking, as they'd win 12 of their next 14 games following an astute trade for Chris Chambers. The offense diversified as Philip Rivers stepped up his play in the second half. By playoff time, the Chargers had developed a versatile enough passing attack to the point where they didn't even need to rely on LT and Gates. Those two, in fact, have done little in the Chargers' two playoff wins. Tomlinson has a combined 70 yards in two games and missed almost the entire Colts' game with a hyperextended knee. Gates hasn't played since the first half of the Chargers' Wild Card victory over the Titans. Down the stretch of the Chargers' thrilling 28-24 win over the Colts, Rivers had to sit out with a sprained knee that has left him questionable going into this weekend. With all those injuries, most teams would have folded tent, but Norv made adjustment after adjustment to get this team within a win of the Super Bowl. That win, however, will be a daunting task, as they travel into New England to face a team chasing history. The Patriots are hoping to run the table in the AFC unblemished. They ran roughshod over their first eight opponents, with none of their victories being closer than 17 points. In the second half, the defense started to stagnate and the team had to face a few close calls, but every time a game was in doubt, league MVP Tom Brady captianed the Pats' unstoppable offensive attack to key touchdowns to close teams out. This game will certainly be closer than the Week 2 blowout. This is a different Chargers team, one that has a more diverse attack and an aura of confidence from slugging their way past two tough AFC North opponents. At the end of the day, however, they still won't have enough weapons to keep pace with the most potent offense in NFL History. Patriots 35, Chargers 24

NFC Championship Game
New York Giants at Green Bay
Line: Packers by 7.5

For the first time in a long time, the NFC Title game carries with it as much intrigue as the AFC Title game, if not more. And what could be more enjoyable for football purists than this throwback matchup. A lot of people like to attribute the Giants' surprising playoff run to their close loss to the Patriots. The truth is, I don't know a team out there that uses a loss as motivation, even a close loss to an undefeated team. The truth is, this team turned the corner when they won their Week 13 game in Chicago. It was a rugged defensive struggle in cold conditions, but they managed to gut out a 21-16 win in a game in which they were really outplayed until the 4th quarter. They rallied from a 9-point deficit and since then, they've played with the type of resolve that's allowed them to upset a 13-win team like Dallas. Having won 9 straight road games and gunning for 10, the Giants face what is easily their toughest road test of the season. The Packers have lost once in Lambeau and looked dominant in the snow in their 42-20 rout of the Seahawks, a game that probably would have been 42-6 if not for two early Ryan Grant fumbles. The temperature is expected to be five below zero at kickoff with untold levels of wind chill. The Giants will be game, as they've prided themselves on playing well in bad weather. They won a week 16 matchup in Buffalo in conditions almost as brutal. If Eli can manage the game and spread the defense with short passes to his 3rd receiver and TE, Steve Smith and Kevin Boss, he'll open the middle of the field for Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw to do damage. At the end of the day, though, the Giants probably don't have enough weapons to keep up with a Packers team that has learned to run the football to compliment their potent passing attack. Packers 23, Giants 20


Divisional Playoff Games vs Spread 3-1
Divisional Playoff Games Straight Up 2-2
Season vs Spread 135-124-9
Season Straight up 168-80

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